🔗 Share this article Can the Scottish team at last break their long-standing losing streak? The All Blacks have made several changes to the side that overcame the Irish team Autumn Nations Series: Scotland v New Zealand Where: Murrayfield Stadium, Edinburgh Date: Saturday, 8 November Kick-off: 3:10 PM GMT The past seemed less complicated. Match number four of Scotland and New Zealand. A packed stadium, a 0-0 draw, January 1964. Celebration when the whistle blew. Fans flooding the field to reflect the home team's momentous achievement. After defeating three home nations, the All Blacks had finally been halted in a Test. A contemporary reporter almost blew a gasket. "An unforgettable sporting spectacle," he announced excitedly with considerable hope. "A match in which Scotland saved the honour of Britain." Exiting the ground after the match, home supporters would have had optimism about what was to come. Multiple efforts to defeat the All Blacks and no wins, but clear signs that maybe one was not far off. A few seasons after, the All Blacks defeated Scotland. Five years after that, they beat them again. Another three years passed, same story. Five more years went by and, yes, you know the rest. Recent History Two decades of matches later. Twenty All Black wins. From Christchurch to Dunedin, Auckland to Cardiff - locations have varied but not the outcomes. In his time in the job, Scotland's coach has ended losing runs in Paris, Cardiff and Twickenham, but this is another level. This is 32 games across 120 years. Among rugby's most persistent curses. Team News Over the past seasons the landslide 20, 30 and 40-point wins have narrowed to closer margins in 2014, 2017 and 2022, but the All Blacks always find a way. Via their excellence, physical dominance, their chicanery, they secure victory. As match day approaches where the optimism that supporters maintained for a Scottish win is probably beginning to fade. Hope is colliding with history. Key Absences Thursday brought news that Fagerson was unavailable. To Scottish ambitions it was like a kick in the guts. The prop has been absent since spring, but he's exceptional and if available then the long gap without a game would not have been a massive concern. During modern rugby early in matches, Fagerson's engine keeps running. No tighthead played nearly as many minutes in the European championship. Squad Depth Another absence is Jones but Rory Hutchinson is flying form with Northampton. There's no such quality replacing big Zander. D'Arcy Rae is an admirable tighthead, his international experience consists of 73 minutes stretched across six years. Once Rae's shift ends, his replacement takes over. While competent, evidence is lacking that he can match New Zealand's standard. Coaching Choices Townsend has sprung surprises, some logical, some puzzling. Kyle Steyn's game-management intelligence replaces Duhan van der Merwe's more one-dimensional power. The flanker selection is unconventional, Rory Darge starting on the bench. Onyeama-Christie's omission is notable. Past Encounters Darcy Graham was a try-scorer in the 31-23 defeat to the All Blacks in 2022 Facing the Irish, New Zealand won the first leg of what they hope will be an undefeated tour. They started slowly, even when playing against 14 men, but their final surge secured victory. Combined with Irish vulnerabilities, their attack, their line-out and their scrum collapsing. Statistical Analysis Despite late-game surges, the final quarter is not where the All Blacks do most of their damage. Across international matches going back three years, they've accumulated scores in the first half and fewer after halftime. They've scored 39 in the first quarter, 48 in the second, 26 in the third and solid finishes. They start aggressively. Required Performance Against Scotland in 2022, they struck twice in the initial stages. Establishing early dominance, victory seemed assured. Scotland fought back impressively to hit them with 23 unanswered points. The lesson here is that, figuratively speaking, Scotland needs sustained pressure from kickoff - and keep it there. Over the last decade, the teams that have managed to beat New Zealand have needed to score in the upper twenties. Scottish scoring only twice in their past 13 games against the All Blacks. Conclusion Perfect execution is required for Townsend's team. Absolutely everything. If they start butchering chances early on then hopes fade. A yellow card? A high penalty count? Set-piece struggles? The game is lost. With perfect execution? A blistering beginning. Vocal support. Electric atmosphere. Clinical finishing. Finn Russell's magic. Graham being Graham. Optimistic thinking, perhaps. Consistent performance has been elusive from Scotland that would be good enough to beat the All Blacks. If it's in there, it's about time it came out; 120 years is enough of a wait.