Day-to-Day Homicides in Mexico Drop Thirty-Seven Percent During President Sheinbaum, As per Government Data

The typical figure of everyday homicides monthly in Mexico has dropped by thirty-seven percent since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum began her term, according to new government figures. However, public safety specialists have warned that homicide figures could fail to signal better national security.

Marked Decline in Per-Day Averages

There was an average of nearly 55 homicides a day in last November compared with almost 87 when Sheinbaum began the presidency in September of last year. This announcement was delivered by the chief of the country’s federal safety system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the president’s daily press briefing on a recent Tuesday.

“The outcome in killings that we’ve had in these past months is very significant,” the President remarked, explaining that the previous month the least number of homicides were registered for any single November in the last 10 years.

Historical Background and Official Plan

Violent organized crime rivalries, alongside the government’s highly military operations to combat the trafficking organizations, have caused Mexico’s homicide numbers rise sharply in recent times. The rate peaked at a peak of 36,773 homicides in 2020, as reported by the country’s official data office.

That resulted in Mexico a murder figure more than four times higher than the United States. However, murders have been on the decline, declining to 33,550 the previous year. The President has linked her public safety approach for an ostensibly sharper drop in killings this year.

At a media briefing in August, the head of state stated: “We have a plan, there is monitoring of the strategy, and there is specific monitoring municipality by municipality in some cases. The strategy functions. And we have to keep working at it every day.”

The key components of the President's security strategy encompass:

  • Bolstering Mexico’s federal guard.
  • Advancing information gathering and investigative work.
  • Increased coordination between various departments.

Expert Warnings and Data Limitations

Nevertheless, security analysts warned that using homicide numbers to draw a conclusion of improved security was problematic. This is particularly true given the uptick in different criminal activities such as people going missing.

“This would be very good information if this were a reduction, but I think we must not just concentrate on the murder data and think: ‘Well then, great,’” commented Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an authority on Mexico's criminal organizations. “I would be tentatively optimistic.”

As reported by the public policy research organization Mexico Evalúa, killings in total fell by more than 20% in the initial 10 months of this year relative to the identical period the previous year. Yet, disappearances have increased by 15% and in some regions have risen by as much as 200%.

“Numbers on homicides is not reliable for estimating the reality of violence,” said Armando Vargas, a security expert at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have law enforcement and prosecutors who lack the capacity or the inclination to properly identify and classify remains. Second, organized [criminals] … have the ability to mask violence through disappearances.”

Vargas noted that relying on monthly means of daily killings was additionally an issue because it might mask days when there were notably high levels of killings.

“Employing the daily average makes high peaks of violent crime invisible,” he stated.

Detentions and Seizures as Measures of Progress

Where the government can cite the success of its security plan is on detentions and seizures. Close to 40,000 individuals were apprehended between last October and this past November for serious offenses, according to government figures. Over 20,000 weapons were taken and 311 tonnes of narcotics intercepted.

“Donald Trump can't claim President Sheinbaum of doing nothing, because actually she is doing a lot with these many thousands of detentions, thousands of seizures, and all the tactical degrading of organised crime. It’s highly in political terms advantageous,” stated Vargas.

Persistent Unrest and Public Frustration

Yet in spite of these efforts, Mexico remains beset by extreme bloodshed, with multiple states in the grip of cartel-driven conflict. In the previous month there was a high-profile killing of a well-liked local official in the region of Michoacan, among 10 mayors killed in the past 12 months.

A short time after, many thousands of youth protested in the capital and across the nation to express their anger at graft and cartel violence.

“The federal government shares [data] in a way to build a story of security. From a political standpoint it’s highly effective, socially it’s highly questionable,” Vargas concluded.
Terri Warren
Terri Warren

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