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Within the widespread uncertainty regarding the US strikes on Venezuela, the apprehension of leader Nicolás Maduro, and the declaration by Donald Trump that the US will “control” the country and “take back the oil”, one thing is clear – they set a deeply alarming precedent.

Past Interference and a New Threshold Crossed

The United States has a grim history of meddling, military incursions, and control in that part of the world, but the recent overnight operation saw its initial significant armed assault on South American land. “US supremacy in this hemisphere shall not be challenged from now on,” the President stated.

The choice to militarily strike another independent nation and seize its president – just a short time after he openly looked for a diplomatic solution – has still wider repercussions. We all have reason to be worried.

Deep Instability for a Nation in Crisis

Venezuelans have suffered under an oppressive, corrupt, and inept government under Mr Maduro, largely considered to have rigged the previous presidential vote. They now face extreme instability in the best case. Mr Trump has indicated that the vice president, Delcy Rodríguez would do as the US says, and brushed aside prominent critic and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a viable alternative.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the temporary head of state, has so far adopted a posture of resistance – and other parts of the leadership-stricken government are considerably more radical.

From Global Policeman to International Outlaw

A man who won power promising to abandon foreign wars now says he is “willing to put soldiers into combat”. Renaming the Department of Defense as the Department of War was a substantive signal. He no longer views the world’s superpower as a guardian of order; he is transforming it into a rogue state.

He holds the view that the US’s might permits it to do as it wishes with little consequence: witness the attacks in Nigeria and against Iranian nuclear sites. He asserts that control of Venezuela's petroleum means this new undertaking “will be financially free”.

An Attack Without Legal Justification

George W. Bush invaded Iraq on a lie. But this unlawful assault came without UN resolutions of any kind or authorization from lawmakers; Democrats were not even informed and say they were deliberately deceived in briefings. Mr Trump is not trying to twist international norms, but to shatter them.

Set aside the signal this transmits to leaders in Moscow, Beijing, and beyond, and consider the destination for America itself. While the raid reportedly killed 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, not a single US soldier was lost. Mr Trump’s growing sense of invincibility will surely embolden further adventurism.

Flimsy Justifications and Underlying Drivers

Few believe the pretext that this is related to the drug trade. Venezuela is only a minor conduit for cocaine; Mr Trump recently pardoned the former Honduran president Juan Orlando Hernández for drugs and weapons crimes. Mr Trump himself has stated plainly that he is motivated by the allure of petroleum resources as well as machismo, the beliefs held by certain advisors, and the desire for glory as his standing with the American public falters.

Tepid International Response and Waning Global Governance

The international response, especially in Europe, has – with honourable exceptions – been shockingly muted. That’s not a result of Mr Maduro’s sins, but anxiety over Mr Trump’s wrath. The forceful statement from UN Secretary General António Guterres was commendable, but this episode highlights the institution’s growing irrelevance.

Mr Trump’s isolationist supporters at home could still pressure him to turn attention back home – but soaring healthcare premiums, financial discontent and ongoing controversies fuel his desire for external drama.

It has been less than 12 months into his time in office. The international community may live to repent if they stay silent now, considering the potential next target.