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Initially, Trump appeared to take a resolute position on Ukraine. After issuing statements of "severe repercussions" in August in case Putin carried on hindering ceasefire discussions, Trump ultimately enacted considerable penalties on the Russian two largest oil companies, Lukoil and Rosneft. This move significantly hindered the Russian leader's capacity to finance his military invasion in Ukraine.

However, through his newly presented 28-point peace plan for the conflict, that was drafted by American and Russian diplomats without Ukrainian or EU involvement, the former president has apparently gone back to his favorable to Russia stance.

Favoring Invasion

The former president's initiative would in practice benefit Putin for occupying a sovereign nation while placing the country's democracy in danger. Despite strong proclamations that "Ukraine's independence will be confirmed", much of the plan in reality weaken that essential autonomy. This constitutes a Moscow's wish would certainly be a Ukrainian nightmare.

Showing his corporate background, Trump continues to view the situation in Ukraine as a basic land disagreement, as if giving Putin a section of Ukrainian land will satisfy the president. Yet, Russia's military campaign is not simply about dominating a damaged swath of deindustrialized area in Ukraine's east. It is about Ukraine's democratic governance – and the Russian leader's apparent desire to weaken it so it no longer acts as an attractive example for the Russian citizens of the accountable government that his growing dictatorship denies them.

Border Surrenders

While freezing in status the already split Ukrainian provinces of these areas, Trump's initiative would force the nation to surrender the whole Donetsk region. Beyond favoring Russia with territory that its forces have been failed to capture in exceeding a lengthy period of conflict, this concession would render Ukraine's defenses critically compromised.

This region is the site of the nation's much-vaunted "defensive line", the fortified military defenses that constitute a key impediment to Russian advances. Trump would have Ukraine surrender these defenses, giving Putin a clear path to Kyiv in case he later choose to restart the hostilities.

Armed Forces Restrictions

Furthermore, in a action that would facilitate renewed fighting easier for Russia, Trump would force the nation to cut the scale of its military from their existing large number personnel to a maximum of 600,000. Significantly, Trump's initiative places no equivalent constraints on Russia's military.

Seemingly as a accommodation to Russia's efforts to portray Ukraine's democratically elected government as Nazis, the plan asserts: "Every Nazi doctrine and activities must be condemned and banned." Seemingly to underscore this element, it insists that "Ukraine will hold elections in this period" of a peace deal. Meanwhile, the proposal imposes no condition that Putin risk his regime by holding democratic processes in Russia.

Defense Commitments

Certainly, the proposal has the Russian Federation promise not to "invade other states" and to "enshrine in regulation its stance of non-violence towards Europe and the Ukrainian people". Yet given that the Russian leadership has breached equivalent treaties in the previous instances – including the 1994 agreement, in which Russia pledged to recognize Ukraine's borders in return for giving up its former Soviet nuclear weapons, and the Minsk accords, in which Russia committed to a ceasefire and a restoration of occupied territory in eastern Ukraine to the government – how should anyone trust this commitment on this occasion?

This explains the Ukrainian government has been so adamant on international protection assurances. While the proposal threatens a "decisive joint defense action" in case Russia restart its aggression, and provides that "Ukraine will receive dependable defense commitments", the specifics range from fuzzy to alarming. The initiative would not just block the nation Nato membership but also prevent Nato members from stationing forces on Ukrainian territory, thus precluding the reassurance force, likely led by European powers, on which the Ukrainian government had been relying to prevent Putin from restoring his diminished forces, restocking, and attacking again.

Global Reaction

A separate parallel deal reportedly would provide the nation with a alliance-like protection assurance, in which any future "significant, intentional, and ongoing military assault" by Russia on Ukraine "would be considered as an act of war jeopardizing the tranquility of the Western nations." This indicates a military response. Yet different from a strong Ukrainian military – Ukraine's best deterrent against renewed hostilities – the success of the parallel accord would hinge on the dedication of Nato leaders, such as Trump, to react with force to Putin's aggression, a response they have {not